A New Monograph Published by Routledge
The book has been published in the Routledge Focus on Economics and Finance series. Routledge, a part of the international Taylor & Francis group, is a recognised academic publisher whose scientific publications are addressed to readers worldwide.
The publication of a single-author monograph by this publisher represents an important element of the international visibility of research conducted at the 91桃色. The book addresses the timely issue of changes in US鈥揅hina economic relations in the context of geopolitical tensions and the reorganisation of global value chains.
Do Changes in Trade Mean Weaker Economic Interdependence?
The trade war between the United States and China, which began in 2018, has influenced the direction of international trade flows and the organisation of production. However, does reducing direct imports from China actually mean a decrease in dependence on the Chinese economy?
Traditional trade statistics show where goods are imported from, but they do not fully reveal where the value added contained in those goods was created. A product imported into the United States from Mexico or Vietnam may contain value that was generated earlier in China.
The research presented in the monograph indicates that between 2017 and 2024, the share of Chinese value added reaching the United States through exporters from third countries increased from 17% to 24%. At the same time, the value of indirect flows increased by 84%, while direct flows rose by 23%.
Beyond Direct Trade: Analysing Indirect Value-Added Flows
The author combines many years of value-added trade analysis with an examination of the structure of indirect production linkages. The study takes into account not only the countries from which goods are exported to the United States but also the earlier stages of these linkages, analysing the scale of flows, their concentration and sectoral diversity.
The research covers the period 2017鈥�2024 and uses data from the interregional input-output tables of the Asian Development Bank.
The starting point for my research was the question of whether the changes observed in direct trade between the United States and China actually reflect a weakening of economic ties between the two countries. In a world of global value chains, goods may enter the American market from different countries, while part of the value added contained in these products may still originate in China. In the book, I seek to demonstrate why understanding these indirect linkages is important for assessing the real effects of trade tensions
鈥� explains the author.
Mexico, Vietnam and Korea in the Network of Economic Linkages
One of the monograph鈥檚 key findings is that intermediary economies perform different functions in the flow of Chinese value added to the American market.
Mexico plays a particularly important role in the earlier stages of the analysed linkages, transferring Chinese value added to subsequent economies. Vietnam is gaining importance both as an intermediary in the earlier stages and as the final exporter to the United States. Korea stands out primarily for its role as the final exporter, especially in linkages related to the electronics industry and transport equipment.
These findings demonstrate that the growing importance of third countries cannot be reduced to a simple replacement of Chinese suppliers. Different economies occupy distinct positions within global value chains.
What Does Value-Added Analysis Contribute to International Trade Research?
The monograph shows that changes in direct trade statistics do not necessarily imply equally profound changes in production linkages. By combining value-added analysis with an examination of the structure of indirect flows, the author presents a more comprehensive picture of economic interdependence between the United States and China.
The research findings contribute to the discussion on economic decoupling, de-risking and the reorganisation of global value chains. They indicate that reduced visibility of China in direct trade does not necessarily mean a decline in its importance within international production processes.
Publication Information
Aleksandra Nacewska-Twardowska, 鈥淯S鈥揅hina Trade Dynamics: Indirect Value-Added Trade Under Geopolitical Uncertainty鈥�, Routledge, Routledge Focus on Economics and Finance series.
Planned publication date: 3 November 2026.