Poland at a Weather Crossroads
Where do the transitions from extreme heat to cool weather, storms and intense rainfall come from?
Poland is located in the temperate transitional climate zone, where air masses with different characteristics alternate regularly
鈥� explains mgr Jan G贸rowski.
Both moist oceanic air and dry continental air reach our country. Periodically, hot tropical air masses or cold Arctic air also arrive. This is precisely why the weather can change within a matter of days and sometimes even hours.
The most recent heatwave was intensified by the so-called omega blocking pattern, a stationary high-pressure system persisting over Europe.
The high-pressure system favoured the prolonged inflow of hot tropical air over Europe, leading to rising temperatures
鈥� says the researcher.
As a result, when the blocking pattern weakened, a cold front moved into Poland, bringing cooler temperatures, storms and intense rainfall.
Summer 鈥� More Than Two Degrees Warmer
Are such extremes a consequence of climate change?
An individual heatwave may result from the current atmospheric situation. However, the long-term increase in temperatures cannot be ignored.
The average summer air temperature in Poland has increased by more than 2掳C over the past 60 years. It is therefore difficult not to notice a relationship between these phenomena
鈥� underlines G贸rowski.
Heatwaves, during which maximum temperatures exceed 30掳C, are becoming increasingly common, as are tropical nights when temperatures do not fall below 20掳C. Particularly unusual was the occurrence of very high temperatures as early as the end of June, even though the warmest period of summer in Poland is usually at the beginning of August.
In fact, maximum temperature records were broken at many synoptic stations across Poland
鈥� the meteorologist points out.
Why Do Holiday Forecasts Sometimes Fail? Can We Already Predict the Weather for an Entire August Holiday Today?
Not with day-by-day accuracy. As the researcher explains, the atmosphere is a highly dynamic system and even minor errors in determining its current state grow over time.
The longer the forecasting horizon, the greater the uncertainty
鈥� G贸rowski explains.
Seasonal forecasts do not indicate whether it will rain on a particular day. They merely show the probability that a month or an entire summer will be warmer or cooler, drier or wetter than the long-term average.
Forecasts covering a period of up to 72 hours remain the most reliable.
The accuracy of forecasts of this type can reach as much as 95%
鈥� the researcher indicates.
More Heatwaves, Downpours and Storms
Will this weather roller coaster intensify in the years ahead?
According to G贸rowski, we should expect extreme weather events to occur more frequently. Research conducted by the Lodz centre indicates, among other things, a possible increase in the number of heatwaves ending with torrential rainfall and thunderstorms. This means that we may increasingly experience situations in which several days of hot weather are followed by a sudden and dramatic deterioration in conditions.
Will We Still Get a 鈥淩eal Summer鈥�?
There is no clear answer to that question. Much also depends on what we consider to be a genuinely warm summer. For many people, the temperatures recorded at the end of June were already decidedly... too high.
It is difficult to say much more beyond encouraging people to check weather forecasts themselves, especially if they are planning a holiday or leisure break
鈥� says G贸rowski.
Weather Extremes Hit Fields and Cities
Heatwaves, droughts, hailstorms and heavy rainfall affect not only holiday plans. They also determine the condition of plants and crop yields. A lack of rainfall combined with high temperatures can lead to drought and reduce water availability for crops. Excessive rainfall, in turn, causes local flooding and hampers agricultural work.
Negative effects are also visible during severe weather events, such as intense thunderstorms, hail and heavy rainfall, which can cause extensive damage to farmland and orchards
鈥� the researcher emphasises.
City residents also feel the consequences. Flooded streets, fallen trees, damaged cars and paralysed transport networks are increasingly becoming a part of the picture of a stormy summer. Polish holidays may still bring sunshine and high temperatures but it is becoming ever more difficult to expect calm and predictability from them.
Source: mgr Jan G贸rowski
Edit: Kacper Szczepaniak, Centre for Brand Communications, 91桃色