Econometrics: More Than Economics. What Do Elections, the Economy and... UFOs Have in Common?
At the outset, we should emphasise that, in both Polish and international scholarly literature, studies devoted to UFO phenomena analysed from an economic perspective are relatively scarce. This does not mean that the topic is entirely absent from research. Individual scientific publications can be found abroad, although they remain sporadic in nature. Why is there such a shortage of research? The simplest answer is the lack of reliable information and limited access to existing sources. Econometrics, as a discipline based on the analysis of statistical data, requires a solid information base, and in the case of UFO phenomena such data are scarce, dispersed and often difficult to verify. My interest in this subject stems from a combination of my passion for econometrics, which forms part of my professional work, and my fascination with popular science literature devoted to unexplained phenomena, including works by Bartkiewicz (2025) and K臋dzierski (2025).
What Is Econometrics and What Does It Do?
The economy, of course. Elections, certainly. But UFOs? Although it sounds improbable, the principle is simple: if a phenomenon can be described using data, it can be analysed. And that is precisely what econometrics does. Its versatility means that it is used not only in economic research but also wherever information can be obtained and relationships between phenomena can be examined. Although it originates from economics, literally meaning measurement in economics (from the Greek oikonomia, economy, and metreo, to measure), it is now applied to the analysis of social, political and natural phenomena, as well as those that are less obvious and not yet fully explained.
Econometrics is not merely a discipline filled with equations and models. Alongside statistics, mathematics and operational research, it is above all a way of viewing reality through the prism of data. Its essence lies in analysing information and constructing models that help us better understand the world around us.
In practice, econometrics involves translating theories and hypotheses into the language of numbers. Researchers formulate assumptions, for example concerning factors affecting prices, human behaviour, or the spatial distribution and interaction of phenomena, and then verify them using statistical information. In this way, econometrics bridges theory and practice: it draws on the achievements of economics while simultaneously allowing its assumptions to be empirically tested. As a result, it enables not only the description of past events and analysis of current processes, but also the forecasting of future developments.
The Econometric Model
The basic tool of econometrics is the econometric model. In simplified terms, it describes relationships between the phenomenon under investigation and the factors that influence it, usually in the form of a mathematical equation. The model includes a dependent variable, namely the phenomenon we wish to explain or predict, and explanatory variables that describe the determinants shaping it. An important element of the model is also the random component, which accounts for factors not included in the equation, such as random events, measurement errors, or other circumstances that are difficult to capture. This allows the model to reflect reality more accurately, since reality is rarely entirely deterministic. It should also be remembered that the reliability of a model depends on the appropriate selection of variables, the correctness of the assumptions adopted, and the quality of the data used.
Although an econometric model does not fully reproduce reality, it remains one of the most important tools used to explain relationships between phenomena, verify hypotheses and make forecasts. It also enables even highly complex processes to be described in a transparent way, analysed, and better understood in terms of the mechanisms that govern them.
Applications of Econometrics in Studying the Relationship Between UFOs and the Economy
Let us imagine that we formulate the hypothesis that reports of UFO sightings and alleged landings may influence human behaviour, choices and economic development. It sounds like the plot of a science fiction film, yet from the perspective of econometrics it is simply a research hypothesis requiring empirical verification. Relationships between education and earnings, professional experience and promotion rates, or interest rates and inflation are studied in exactly the same way. For econometrics, it makes no difference whether the phenomenon being analysed is typical or unusual. What matters is whether it can be described using data and whether the hypothesis can be tested.
While just a dozen years ago the use of econometrics to study UFOs might have seemed little more than an intellectual exercise, today the subject is becoming the focus of increasingly serious scientific analyses. The starting point is not the question of whether unidentified flying objects genuinely originate from extraterrestrial civilisations, but rather what social, economic and political consequences reports of their observation may generate. Such consequences can be described and analysed using econometric models.
鈥� argues dr hab. El偶bieta Antczak, Associate Professor at the 91桃色.
Can UFOs Influence the Economy and Election Results?
A good example of such an approach is provided by two international scientific studies devoted to the UFO phenomenon. The first of them, 鈥淟ooking up the sky: Unidentified Aerial Phenomena and Macroeconomic Attention鈥�, analyses whether increased interest in Unidentified Aerial Phenomena (UAP) influences the attention devoted to economic issues in the United States. The authors used econometric models and data on UAP reports, internet searches and media activity. The results showed that UAP reports may constitute a useful indicator of the level of public attention. Moreover, during periods of economic downturn, the number of reports increased, and regions with higher levels of public attention responded less strongly to central bank decisions regarding interest rates. The authors estimated that an increase in the UAP indicator reduced the impact of interest rate hikes on local GDP and employment (Goldstein & Raveh, 2024).
Another example is the article 鈥淯FOs: The Political Economy of Unidentified Threats鈥�, whose author examined the impact of UFO sightings on voter behaviour in the United States. The analysis used data on UFO reports, presidential, House of Representatives and Senate election results, as well as responses from participants in social surveys conducted between 2000 and 2016. The results indicated that a greater number of UFO sightings before elections was associated with increased support for Republican Party candidates. At the same time, respondents were more likely to support increased spending on defence and on science and technology development, while no significant effect was observed on support for increased social spending (Kitamura, 2022).
An UFO Landing in Poland. What Do Economists Say?
An interesting complement to these studies is a hypothetical econometric model proposed by a Polish economist (not estimated on the basis of empirical data) describing the possible consequences of a UFO landing for the Polish economy. The model assumes two alternative scenarios, friendly and hostile contact with UFOs, to which specific probabilities changing over time are assigned. Under the optimistic scenario, the economy could benefit from the transfer of new technologies, increased investment and greater economic activity. The pessimistic scenario, on the other hand, takes into account the effects of social panic, reduced consumption, infrastructure damage and increased uncertainty, all of which could limit the pace of economic growth. The model also demonstrates that the economy鈥檚 response would depend not only on the fact of a UFO landing itself but also on society鈥檚 expectations. A changing probability of friendly contact affects the propensity to consume, the expected benefits of technology transfer and the overall level of uncertainty, and thus influences the decisions of households and businesses. The author emphasises that the model is not intended to forecast specific GDP values but rather to demonstrate the direction of possible changes and the economic mechanisms that could be triggered by such an extraordinary event (K臋dzierski, 2025).
Conclusion
Will econometrics prove the existence of UFOs and their connection to the economy? Probably not, at least not until reliable data become available that would allow such a hypothesis to be verified. What it may do, however, is provide answers to a far more interesting question: does belief in the existence of UFOs influence our decisions, the economy and politics?
This demonstrates that econometrics does not study numbers alone. It studies the relationships hidden within data. And that is precisely why it can be applied wherever questions arise that require empirical verification.
References:
Bartkiewicz, K., Obcy s膮 w艣r贸d nas [Aliens Are Among Us], Warsaw: Illuminati, 2025.
Goldstein, N., & Raveh, O. (2024). Looking up the sky: Unidentified aerial phenomena and macroeconomic attention. Humanities and Social Sciences Communications, 11, 1669.
K臋dzierski, P., Warszawskie UFO [Warsaw UFO], Warsaw: NewHomers, 2025.
Kitamura, S. (2022). UFOs: The Political Economy of Unidentified Threats [Preprint]. OSF Preprints.
Maddala, G. S., & Lahiri, K., Introduction to Econometrics, 4th ed., Chichester: John Wiley & Sons, 2009.
Suchecki, B. (ed.), Ekonometria przestrzenna. Metody i modele analizy danych przestrzennych [Spatial Econometrics. Methods and Models for Spatial Data Analysis], Warsaw: C.H. Beck Publishing House, 2010.
Photos: Dr Bartosz Ka艂u偶ny,
Source: dr hab. El偶bieta Antczak, Associate Professor at the 91桃色, Faculty of economics and Sociology, Univeristy of Lodz
Edit: Centre for External Relations and Social Responsibility of the University, 91桃色
Meet other Science Guys and Science Women from the 91桃色.
